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sexta-feira, 12 de novembro de 2021

Glasgow – Guinness mugs on the loose

 1 - The mandarin spectacle – COP 26

 2 - Against the irrationality inherent to capitalism? Not really…

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1 - The mandarin spectacle – COP 26

It becomes absolutely evident that COP 26 is just a media number to convince the naive that the large and small national mandarins present in Glasgow will do something substantive in the environmental chapter. With less media attention, an event supported by the Alliance of World Scientists in August with more than 15,000 signatories, from 160 countries, in support of the following declaration: World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency.

For the solemnity intended to be given to the Glasgow conference, it began with an error revealing gross ignorance. Prosecutors presented a video about the extinction of dinosaurs and did not think that those animals died in a cold climate after a meteorite hit; and not with global warming like the one we are witnessing. The meteorite of that time today would be capitalism. And if someone insane thinks of applying a radical solution to cool the climate, it's enough to generate a… nuclear war; the bombs and vehicles to drop them are in constant need...

COP26 clearly shows its oligarchic spirit by considering, almost exclusively, the presence of representatives from countries, from governmental spheres; with the … natural removal of thousands of NGOs dedicated to gathering information and putting in the field options that governments, on top of their oligarchical pedestals, do not consider it per se and, even less, deign to apply. On November 3, thousands of NGOs present in Glasgow, the accredited were just four! The dichotomy between the set of political classes present at the conference, and the NGOs, is clear. NGOs originated social initiatives, in spite many of them they naively believe that those political classes, under the effect of a divine breath, will be in charge of burying capitalism and redeem themselves, like ascetics, in a frugal convent life…

 


For national oligarchs, the world belongs to them, even if some are more equal than others…; and the common people, they cannot mix with the oligarchs, they stay at the door. The young Greta Thunberg[1] portrayed this situation very well – “This is no longer a climate conference, it is a festival washing the green image for the global North”; thus, this situation deserves all critical radicalism, showing itself as a mirror of what capitalism is and, in this context, it deserves all the opposition that is necessary to make to the political classes that, as a rule, are problems in themselves and only for the naive, resolution builders.

The global political class, faced with opposition as weak as that emanating from ecological parties and groups, does not even hide; on the contrary, it has no concern to hide its image as reckless spendthrifts, nor the exhibitionism and arrogance typical of those who know how poor the understanding and performance of victims of the dominant economic and political system is. As it is mirrored in Glasgow… Let's look at some examples.

A few days ago, from October 29th to 31st, in Rome, at the meeting of the G20, a group formed by the countries with the greatest economic power in the world, they received from the partner Maserati 40 cars available to the mandarins (read heads of State and of Government) for use during the conclave. 

To participate in COP26, 400 private jets arrived in Glasgow, each with a mandarin (the ride is not planned!) all “full of enthusiasm” to participate in the circus. It is known that they emit 13,000 t of CO2, equivalent to the consumption of 1600 Scots during a year, according to the Sunday Mail!

Still in Glasgow, Biden's enthusiasm was so great that he was dozing a little during a session… Days before, Biden (some people call him Zombiden) disembarked in Rome for a G20 session, in his Cadillac One, a mastodon with an 8100 cc engine, very ecological because… it consumes only 29 to 64 litres of gasoline per 100 kilometres (!) and that circulated in a procession with more… 84 cars for the safety of the individual. But it would be unfair if we limited ourselves to the behavior of the limited Biden as Ursula von der Leyen, more measured, only used her private jet on 18 of her 34 official trips, including in one of them a route of… 50 km, between Vienna and Bratislava.

Biden knows he has little leeway in Congress to apply $555,000M to climate change. In contrast, in the US, the fossil fuel sectors have received $3B over the past six years. Interestingly, the same Biden facilitated a 900% increase in coal shipped to China while seeking to limit Russian and Qatari gas sales to replace them with shale gas, the extraction of which is an environmental crime![2]. Years ago, we observed in a National Geographic article a very strange situation… In a place close to one of these extractions, in the USA, when a burning match approached from the water that came out of a tap, the liquid produced small flames.

Some three years ago, 300,000 commercial aircraft circulated daily, in addition to the totally nefarious and useless exercises carried out in the context of military manoeuvres. In addition to other specific operations with a useful purpose, between the military, in Portugal, we only register as worthy the coordination carried out by Gouveia e Melo within the scope of covid 19.

Such a nourishing party in Glasgow seems to be destined to present a novelty — the creation of the first global tax (“carbon tax”) by the States, levied by the respective local mandarins, who will, of course, be responsible for transmitting this tax burden to the people.

Of course, this won't affect fossil fuel emporiums much; they are well aware that the automobile is the most loved element of families, who sacrifice themselves to have a vehicle available at their doorstep. Experience shows that the appreciation of the car is so great that the common people will accept, resignedly, to pay any increase in taxes that may encumber the ownership of a vehicle and its circulation. On the other hand, no one sane will believe that the political classes will override the interests of their national companies in the field of automobiles and fuel sales; imposing limitations and tax burdens on those who, by tradition, finance the dominant parties and their bosses.

The WHO, which has not been brilliant in combating the coronavirus, even with substantial financial support from Gates, presents, in times of COP26, a proposal to reduce accidents and deaths on the road that are guided, per year, respectively, in 50 and 1.3 millions of people (Global Plan for the Decade of Action for Road Safety). This plan aims to reduce speed limits to 30 km/h in urban areas, to 80 km/h in localities and to 100 km/h in motorways. According to the director of the WHO Department of Social Determinants of Health, Etienne Krug, the more than 50 M who have died on the roads since the invention of cars clearly outnumber those killed in the four years of World War I (20 M).

The dominant economic environment shows the focus on increasing profits, increasing production, exports, competition, inveterate consumption fostered by advertising; as well as in the reduction of the direct intervention of the workers, in the reduction of the production costs or, of the ratio of wages/profits. The WHO Plan, confronted with the real economic environment, would have to imply a profound change in the economic paradigm, in a political involvement barely visible in the global context of economist, of corrupt political classes captured by economic interests. Above all, it demands strong activism from the populations themselves in favour of the health and well-being of all, which would make evident the uselessness of the political classes, financed by the States and by entities with hidden interests; an alternative for the construction of effectively democratic models of political representation with the annulment of the existence of political oligarchies, such as those present at COP26.

2 - Against the irrationality inherent to capitalism? Not really…

The aforementioned elements point to profound changes to be developed in human mobility, both in long distances and in current, short-distance movements and, above all, in commuting to home/work, especially when accompanied by triangular paths involving schools or nurseries. The solutions contemplate the reduction of time and dimension of the home/work routes through public transport, without emission of gases and, to the detriment and discrimination of car transport when, in addition, with the driver as the only passenger. And, one could go even further, mixing workplaces with residential areas in order to reduce commuting routes on transport or even cover these routes on foot.

It is completely irrational to spend an inordinate amount of time in public transport, full of people, with the air saturated and bottled up in traffic, in the well-known stop-and-go; it is irrational to spend a considerable amount of time in an endless line of cars, idling, releasing toxic gases into the atmosphere, in the morning and at the end of the afternoon, passing through a school or kindergarten; The low investment in electricity-powered rail routes is irrational: it is irrational to build huge buildings with several dwellings per floor, with elevator costs and little space for parking, even if free and not subject to payment to a local authority or a company. The constant increase in urban and suburban areas always comes before careful planning of the transport network; and these end up adapting to the layout of the streets, available to the buildings, without any planning or rationality on the part of municipalities mined with shady business between mandarins and property developers.

The concentration of economic activities in urban areas, sometimes gigantic, constantly attracts population, contributing to the depletion of rural areas, with little economic activity and reduced sanitary coverage, adjusted for an ageing population, with deserted villages and closed houses, when not in accelerated degradation. That is, a dichotomous and regressive occupation of the territory.

Clean energies fall into two groups.

Some require heavy and expensive infrastructure, operating in a contractual, market logic, between producers and consumers, with the inevitable presence of an increased tax burden to feed political classes, always eager to use the state machine, not retreating from favours and other acts corrupt. They are based on mercantile logic and tend to be invasive – wind towers, hectares covered with solar panels, requiring transport networks with inherent losses along the way.

The second version consists of the easy adaptation to a family house or a group of tenants in a medium-sized building, capable of production for self-consumption; without tax, but with partial interference from large electrical companies, in periods of low production. In Portugal, the intervention of the troika in 2013/15 introduced a 23% VAT rate, the same one used for sumptuous consumptions and for necessities, such as electricity consumed in homes; this situation is inside the action of a predatory State, collecting an immeasurable tax burden and revealing a reality in which taxes can be created, maintained but rarely reduced. And, when reduced, it is because of compensation in another tax.

The lightness of the political classes in the face of the situation associated with the contempt for the human multitude on the part of the capitalists, especially the powerful, such as Bezos[3] or Gates; or from inept politicians like Biden or Boris. Fearful of any more harmful attitude to their important carcasses, they only feel safe, in the company of their peers, always surrounded by police and security guards.

The problem in today's world is that smart people are

full of  doubts and idiot people are full of certainty

The common press lives in a concubinage relationship with the political class; together they constitute a pair of entertainers from the crowd. Members of the political class need the media to constantly divulge their abilities, their speeches, their presence in public places, the applause of the bastards; and, vice versa, the media, in order to sell the advertising that pays the costs, unfolds itself in the collection and dissemination of opinions, promises, criticisms of the opposition, by the mandarins; the more tense a political dispute, the more the subject matters to the media. Political class and press constitute two osmotic worlds where emptiness, lies, is the main elements placed in the press in general or, broadcast on TV, for the more media, 24 hours a day, interspersed with contests, idiotic series or full of violence and football; and, in the latter case, it is a matter of extremely narrow effective content, made up of exacerbated rivalries and conflicts, between managers eager for money from player transfers.

It is evident that the capitalists and the political classes have always been light-hearted in the face of transformations that lead, all over the place, to poor air quality, diseases, exhausting displacements within urban areas, exhaustion, and poisoning of agricultural soils, etc. everything, following its productivism, its eagerness for the growth of the GDP or, the accumulation of capital, if you prefer…

To say lightness is, in fact, very… light. Both groups — capitalists and political classes — are fierce defenders of the so-called free market, even if its operation, in the main business areas, has been controlled by companies or oligopolies of enormous size and power. The drive for a constant valuation of securities on the stock exchanges dominates the large global emporiums, and this drive has repercussions on the lower levels of business. On the other hand, this valuation incorporates billions of fictitious currency units, so that said financial markets are always expanding. And, governments follow the same logic by that dazzle people, taking as their objective the infinite growth of the GDP, covering up, in between, the stagnation or the weak evolution of real income from work[4].

As for global warming, the subject will drop off the agenda when the Glasgow meeting closes. Capitalists and their peers will continue to show a reasonable disinterest, more focused on the appreciation of securities on the stock market. And, the political classes will keep global warming on the agenda, on a low heat, as a way of putting pressure on governments. As for the ecological groups, they become parties like the others, like the German Greens, entering the German government, as years ago in the war in the former Yugoslavia; or, they are content to present creative technologies to postpone the moment of a massive collapse, without touching the global model of capitalist management or even the representational model, oligarchic and authoritarian.

 

The perfect dictatorship will have the appearances of democracy, a prison without walls in which prisoners will not even dream of escaping. A system of slavery where, thanks to consumption and entertainment, slaves will love slavery

This and other texts in:

http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/

http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/documents                                

https://pt.scribd.com/uploads

 


[1] Has Greta learned that there is no constructive dialogue with the top names of the political class? We recall her (useless) meeting a couple of years ago with Obama, the promoter of the wars of destruction in Libya, Syria and Iraq; the same Obama who appears with the purity of a dove, at the conclave of COP26, as he presented  himself as a dove of peace, deserving the Nobel, just before deciding to invade Libya , proceeding with the destructuring of West Asia and validating the coup d'etat in Egypt to bring dictator al-Sisi to power. 

[2] The factual elements contained in the previous paragraphs are mostly from https://informacaoincorrecta.com (G20 and COP26: WYSIWYG)  

[3] Bezos hasn't found anything smarter than paying a fortune for a four-minute suborbital ride https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/jeff-bezos-space-flight-money-better-uses/ 

[4] The Portuguese Prime Minister recently proposed an increase, for 2022, of the minimum wage, from €700 to €705, ie +0.71%, which is below the expected inflation (0.9%). It is about the misery of a Portugal of the little ones.

terça-feira, 1 de dezembro de 2020

The financial system, the first global dictator - 2

 Summary

4 - Total credit directed to households and non-profit companies serving households (% of GDP)

5 - Total credit directed to non-financial companies (% of GDP)

6 - Structures and dynamics in the distribution of credit / indebtedness

 

 

******* // \\ *******                        

 

In the first part of this analysis, the total credit directed to the non-financial sector is accompanied by an approach on one of its installments, the public sector. In this second part, we will consider two other parts of this non-financial sector - households (including non-profit entities) and non-financial companies. Also and, as before, taking into account that all quantities are measured in terms of the percentage of GDP for each year.

Below is a schematic of the framework for the various sectors of economic activity with the data released by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)

Total - non-financial sector

 


    Public sector

Families and businesses are in profit

      Companies

 








Non-financial private    



 

In today's capitalism, it is necessary to promote increased availability of capital, since economic activity never generates sufficient income to satisfy the accumulation felt as necessary; hence the drive for economic growth that did not exist before Keynes. In this context, the aim is to increase the "invested" capital, without quantitative limitations, speculating, obtaining favors from the State, obtaining credit from the financial market (banks, stock exchange, speculation) or, making war if necessary.

On the other hand, some pressure is placed on those who live on income from consumption, largely of useless or harmful goods or services, despite the precariousness of that income. And, the satisfaction of this pressure requires the use of credit, especially in the very long term, with the financial system.

Public management itself does not escape this drive, as each gang in power needs to maintain order and obedience, domesticating police, military and, civil servants; how it needs to showcase its work to win the next elections and please the businessmen who finance the corruption of governments and political classes in general.

The way out of this common dilemma is recourse to indebtedness, something that has become obsessive and whose solution is presented by the thin capital that stands apart from the so-called "real" economy; and this, the traditional capitalists, producers of non - financial goods and services, the state apparatus, in charge of the convenient redistribution of fiscal puncture; and yet, the ordinary people, the families, the helots, whose gentleness is essential for the continuation of the capitalist system and the regimes of market "democracy", with variable degrees of brutality. 

 

4 - Total credit directed to households and non-profit companies serving households (% of GDP)

There, in the first chart below inserted various types of credit evolution of granted or, if you prefer, the level of household debt in the last 25 years, for the chosen countries.

It is quite clear that there are two periods. The first, which ends around 2009, of a large expansion of the weight of household debt in GDP; and the second, until the present moment, in which the weight of indebtedness has stabilized.

For all euro countries as a whole, these credits grew until 2009, then retreated to the present day, clearly abandoning the high upward trend seen until the mid-decade crisis. In Britain and the Iberian countries, the household debt is very sharp, with strong growth to the discharge of the financial crisis declining thereafter, except Great Britain that keeps stable the debt burden of households in past few years.

Portugal, Spain and, Greece have large growth loans to households, and that doubles, substantially in about ten years, with Greece, a lower level; euphoria in the Iberian countries peaked in 2009, decreasing until now to weight values ​​in GDP close to those recorded twenty years before. In the case of Greece, the peak is reached in 2013 but the drop is not as sudden as in Portugal or Spain. Thus, excluding Great Britain, there is an approximation of the degree of family indebtedness in the latter, among euro countries, for indicators close to the set.

France shows a great regularity in the growth of household indebtedness and Italy shows the lowest levels of family indebtedness, compared to GDP and, n a stable plan around 40% of GDP, since 2008.

Germany shows a clear dissimilarity compared to the other countries considered. The weight of German family debts - the highest at the turn of the century - evolves until reaching the lowest coefficient, among the countries considered, with the except for Italy; a very regular evolution, with a decreasing tendency. 

 


Synthetically, there is a clear reduction, over time, of the differences between the degree of household indebtedness to the euro countries, if Italy is excluded.

When approaching the situation for large aggregates of countries - eurozone and G20, on the one hand, and the two world colossuses - China and the USA, on the other - there is a great similarity (see graph below) between the two first aggregates, with indicators close to 60% of GDP since 2006.

As for the USA, family indebtedness had a dimension equivalent to the value of GDP in the period 2007/2009, at the height of the financial crisis known as that of subprimes. What was verified in the period reflects in negative, the debt assumption of euphoria by families with limited resources but tricked into debt increases, taking into consideration the high valuation of their homes. As the real estate lost value, unlike the debt, the execution of the mortgages led millions of people without health coverage (at the time of the enormous neglect of Trump as a political pandemic manager) and homeless, sleeping on the streets and under bridges. American Dream seems to be renaming itself American Nightmare, in the face of Xi's smile that will be convinced of the possibility of capitalism without a hangover, protected by a new Great Wall; however, this did not prevent the Mongols from entering, let alone looting and violence carried out by barbarians (designation officially given to Europeans).

As for China, the weight in GDP of household indebtedness has sixfold in fourteen years (2006-2020), which is something extraordinary. Although it is a country with 1300 M people (two and a half times the population of the EU), it is worth asking whether a capitalist economy can maintain this rise even within the framework of tentative and intractable political power; or, if the country's export power, even if it depends on energy and investments a little bit by all parties, can be maintained; what changes will arise from economic co-optation in the Western Pacific area (among other areas of penetration), with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The United States' strategic retreat in the creation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that aimed, precisely, to leave China out, should be considered a gift to China. In return, the US has strengthened its military potential in Taiwan…


5 - Total credit directed to non-financial companies (% of GDP)

It is considered here as loans to non-financial companies, those coming from bank financing, partners or private loans, operations the stock exchange or, to public entities. As can be seen in the following graph, there are varying degrees of indebtedness taking GDP as a dynamic element of comparison.

France shows steady growth in corporate indebtedness and, always at a very high level, which reaches 155% of GDP in March of the current year; and, without a hitch in the face of the financial crisis. A regularity that, being verified with high levels of credit dependence, did not change in the trajectory during the period of financial turbulence centered in the middle of the last decade.

The Iberian countries show a huge increase in indebtedness compared to the amount of GDP, until the period when the crisis in their financial sectors is revealed, along with the deterioration of public accounts, unemployment and, the fall in activity levels. However, there is a two-year gap between the two countries concerning the turning point (Spain 2010 and Portugal, 2012). The enormous growth in indebtedness did not lead to a reinforcement of the productive capacity, nor of the purchasing power of the population, but, increment or public and private debt, as well as unemployment levels.

The enormous growth in debt resulted in a loss of purchasing power for the population and not in improvements in the quality of life. In this context, the responsibilities of the political classes are immense and it is surprisingly their disastrous performance has not led to a renewal of it, with deep changes in the model of representation. In Spain, the crisis - financial, unemployment and, evictions - generated a popular movement ( 15 M ) in 2011 as well as a change in political chess, with the emergence of Ciudadanos, Vox and, Podemos let us add that the renewed movement for the separation of Catalonia or the discredit of the monarchy were elements that formally changed the political structure but not, its oligarchic and corrupt substance. In Portugal, the traditional pentapartito, continued with more or less “lonely tenors” in the Republic Assembly as well as the debt crisis or bank fraud , with deviant political provocations such as “ Que Se Lixe a Troika”[1] or “ Geração à Rasca”[2], created to avoid any durable and effective contestation that would threaten the functionalism of the parliamentary “ left ”.

In Spain, indebtedness, in terms of GDP, almost triples in a short period of twelve years (1998/2010) while GDP itself only doubles; on the other hand, between 2010/2016 the fall in indebtedness corresponds to a period of GDP stagnation. In Portugal, indebtedness doubles compared to GDP in a slightly more extended period, of fourteen years, while the product itself stagnated in 2007/2015.

Italy and Greece correspond to the same profile mentioned above for Spain and Portugal but with much lower peaks and spaced over time, with structurally lower levels of indebtedness. For their part, Germany and Great Britain boast great regularity and much lower debt weights for non-financial companies than in France, Spain or, Portugal. 

 

Regarding the large aggregates of countries and for the two largest powers, the USA constitutes the aggregate where the indebtedness of non-financial companies is lowest, even if with a slow rise, it reaches 78% of GDP last March.

In a general context of growth in the use of credit by non-financial companies, the regularity observed for the G20 and the Eurozone should be highlighted. There is a clear contrast with China, for which there is a strong upward trend until 2015, passing through the breaks of 2007/08 and 2009/11; in recent years, however, the use of credit by Chinese non-financial companies appears to be in restraint.


 

6 - Structures and dynamics in the distribution of credit/indebtedness

 

At this point, we intend to show, in summary, the changes regarding the main of the three major areas of credit recipients; and the duration of that top position. , for each country. At the same time, we show the average distribution of credit granted for each of the economic and social segments, also for each of the countries considered and, for all (or part) of the period to which the data refer.  

 

 

Main destinations for credit to non-financial institutions

Average distribution of credit by institutional sectors (%)

Families

State

Companies

Families

State

Companies

Germany

1998/2004

2005 ->

 

3 2.4

3 7.3

30.3

Spain

 

1995/1999

2000/2014

26.3

32.4

41.2

 

2015 ->

France

 

 

1998 ->

18.8

33.4

48.0

Italy

 

1999 ->

 

15.5

54.0

30.5

Greece

 

1999 ->

 

18.2

58.7

23.7

Portugal

 

2014 ->

1998/2013

27.2

34.0

38.8

Z. Euro

 

1999 and 2014

2000/2013

24.2

35.6

40.1

China

 

 

2006 ->

1 6.1

19.0

64.8

USA

1996/2010

1995/96

 

3 6.0

34.3

29.7

2011 ->

 

 

From the table above, are extracted the following notes related to recipients of credit or, assumed debt :

·                     Germany shows that this situation fell on families until the first decade of this century, being replaced by the State at the beginning of the century following the Hartz reforms. The German state in 2002 had a corresponding debt at 61.8% of GDP that reached to 70.2% in 2005, never retreating to levels seen around the turn of the century;

In the case of the USA, families absorbed the largest share of indebtedness until the subprime crisis put the State as the main debtor as of 2011. In 2007, the US State had a debt corresponding to 60.7% of GDP, an amount that increases regularly to 102.4% in 2012 and 111.1% in March. By contrast, household debt corresponding to 98.5% of GDP in 2007, has been declining, since up to 75.2% in March last;

 

·                     France and China have always revealed that business data is the main sector with debt levels compared to other groups socio-economic, families. and, States. Among the countries considered here, they are the ones where the weight of companies is highest, in total debt.

In China, the preponderance of credit obtained by companies reveals the country's industrial and commercial strength, especially in the area of ​​exports; and that, contrary to typical state capitalism, economic activity develops with autonomy but obviously under the control state and the party. Note also the low share of indebtedness related to families, much lower than the so-called western countries.

 

·                  Spain  and Portugal, as well as the whole of the Eurozone, have, roughly, as a standard for the whole period, a predominance of the debt generated by the companies ... but from the beginning of the century until 2013/14, when the situation alter or; from then on, and in response to the financial crisis and real estate, is the state that presents itself as the principal debtor, as the great stabilizer, following the chela crisis that generated income drop, unemployment, reduced purchasing power and, strong growth public debt.

 

·                     In Greece and Italy, throughout the period, the state is the principal debtor, with indicators well above the sum of two other socio-economic groups.

  This and other texts in:

 

http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/


http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/documents

https://en.scribd.com/uploads
 



[1] “Fuck Troika!” 

[2] “A Generation in troubles, menaced”