quinta-feira, 21 de março de 2019

Capitalist delusion and climate drift - 1


Around the mid-nineteenth century Marx said that philosophers had hitherto endeavoured to understand the world; and that it was time to transform it. Seventeen decades later, this idea screams in our ears.
Put in another way: there is no solution to environmental problems within the capitalist model.

Summary

1 –  Introduction
2 –  Environmental management by capitalists and their employees
3 –  Climate change - causes and effects
a)                       Ineluctable absence of human interference cases
b)                       Historical and current impacts of capitalist development
c)                       Environmental management as done by multinationals and their employees

1 – Introduction

Humanity has, since its remotest times, left marks on the planet. But they never, however, had the scale and depth of present times. And the effects of this intervention are, today, shown to be disastrous and extremely dangerous. 

Studies on the subject abound and for decades, in various societies, groups and institutions have emerged that point to the damage caused by capitalism, although most of them treat capitalism as a given, as something external and compatible with environmental changes. In fact, even if there was no awareness of environmental changes, as has happened up to fifty years ago, there are many reasons to promote the extinction of capitalism and the fight against its pseudo-alternatives. 

As the image below demonstrates, the well-known neo-liberal capitalism, the "socially responsible" capitalism – credible only for reasons of propaganda or faith – sustainable capitalism or capitalism with a human face, has the same face, the same smell and a lot of capacity and patience to persuade anyone who has the mind of a child of less than five years age. Recently, in Davos, the moguls of capital assembled, always open to using any
ideological mishmash so that everything remains the same. 


Capitalism corresponds to the accumulation of capital, growing and unstoppable, marching from crisis to crisis, from war to war, from destructing to constructing, or to construction to be destroyed; with the necessary degree of destruction of human lives. 

To accelerate this accumulation – insufficient if based only upon the production of goods and services – the capitalist system has developed the financial artifices that, through multiple and linked speculative operations on commodities essential to Humanity, as well as numerical fantasies, allow the generation of large capital gains. These operations, which benefit from the necessary support of the globalized political classes or the nation-states, generate a fragile dynamic, the halting of which leads to ruinous reversals to financial capital itself, to enterprises producing goods and services, where human beings are located and, in particular, to the base, overwhelmingly composed of workers, ex-workers or unemployed. The latter constitute the said majority of 99% of the Humanity[1] which, on the other side, has the nefarious 1%, of bankers and speculators, holders of great wealth and the highest strata of the political classes. 

In this delusion, people are worth little and are disposable, from work or life, whether they are anti-capitalist, neutral or ignorant of what capitalism is; they are and will be victims whenever this situation is favourable to the march of accumulation; and the permanently inhabited areas (oecumene) as well as the atmosphere or the oceans, will be treated the same.

No area of human life is exempt from conditioning or being driven by capitalism; nothing and no one today can escape its insane drift. Hence there is a huge danger for Humanity (the current 7,200 million human beings) since the difficulties, the poverty, the social deconstructions and the conflicts are immense; disasters that will not diminish if human population reaches 9,600 million within thirty years. This despite it being known, given today's technologies, that the planet can guarantee decent living conditions for 12,000 million, according to UNESCO calculations from 1999. Symbolically, the question is: the stock market or your life. 

In this context, all the piecemeal, segmented, approaches to reality fall short, as has been said recently, and their integration, the generation of synergies, is necessary, setting outside, as declared enemies, capitalists and the political classes, which are managers – factually or potentially – of the State’s apparatuses, and whose functions are to flatten the ground for the attainment of accumulation of capital, and  the vigilance or pitiless repression in order to subdue the crowd. 

2 – Environmental management by capitalists and their employees

Capital accumulation causes collateral damages such as the production of more or less toxic waste from homes, factories or hospitals; but always in increasing amounts and with more complicated and expensive management. Lethal waste from nuclear power plants is prone to take 10,000 years to disappear; meanwhile they drift around, pushed, and relocated to unstructured and poor countries. Toxic gases circulate freely, generated in power stations that burn oil or coal, or by the engines of automobiles, trucks, boats or airplanes, instruments of the segmented production inherent to the relocations, vital to generate higher rates of profit, besides tourism. The integration of chemicals into human, animal, and plant nutrition has poorly studied or under-estimated implications, but increases business profitability. Abandoned waste from mines contaminates water and soil. The essential logistics chains for the movement of goods from anywhere to everywhere feed businesses, lower wages, living and working conditions, in order to respond to a consumerism induced to generate profits, and a fleeting well-being purchased on credit. The impacts resulting thereof in aquifers, rivers and seas are evident. All this and more, because of a supreme fixation on the abstract growth (of GDP) which, in a more technical and political way, is translated into accumulation of capital, to be later redistributed. 

More media-appealing than pollution – although this one is more palpable, visible, better known, and clearly originated in the neglected human performance – are climate changes, with a global scope, more immune to spatially restricted interventions or to the isolated action of groups of people, state, national, regional or local institutions; and, above all, there is no consensual acquis in the area of cause and effect relationships. 

This global reality tends to be monitored by governments or in international fora, where technicians, scientists, NGOs, politicians, members or consultants hired by large multinationals cross. The interference of States and multinationals guarantees situations of bastardization and bias of experiences and conclusions drawn from scientific works; having behind them reasons related to stupid nationalisms, the fixation in subordination to the logic of profitability, value creation, and profit-making, for the benefit of shareholders. 

From this promiscuity a culture broth ensues that is not aggressive and even cooperates with the action of those states and multinationals. Within the logic of capitalism and armed with the absurd belief that States and political classes exist to help peoples, there are groups that focus on a mania inherent to capitalism – growth – as if admitting that once the disease is cured the world will live in peace and eternal bliss... in capitalism.

3 Climate change - causes and effects

There is a great diversity of views on climate change, its causes and the rhythm at which it is happening. The IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change points out the human causes as the most important, but there are researchers who consider mostly natural causes. Everything points to the need to consider a cross between human causes, on the one hand, with others, inherent to the planet and its relation with the surrounding space. 

Among scientists, there is a need to address deficiencies in the measurement methods used and/or weaknesses in the data collected. This justifies the commitment to compilation of climate data for longer periods, in order to make the global circulation model (GCM) more robust, with a search for greater consistency with the results obtained through simulations.
Current knowledge about the climate[2] is quite insufficient and uncertain. The main factors used for this end are based on cycles of 3.36 years and 22.6 years, taken independently and which, being very short, allow for proportionally large variations.

The first of these cycles is related to the ENSO - El Niño-Southern Oscillation , which is based on the irregular variation of winds and the surface temperature of the eastern Pacific, that affects the climate, mainly in the tropical and subtropical areas, causing there high atmospheric pressures in parallel with low pressures in Indonesia. These high pressures and heating through the El Niño take turns with the cooling that accompanies La Niña, their whole being called the Walker circulation.

The second cycle is related to the Hale sunspot cycle, that is to say, with variations in sunspots, which are associated with strong magnetic fields and whose cycles are irregular, the possibility of predicting them and relating them with the temperature of the Earth being very difficult. And this is in spite of it being known that the Earth's magnetic field deflects a substantial part of the radiation coming from the Sun.

Additionally, the effects that a millenarian cycle resulting from the conjunction of the Sun, Jupiter and Saturn, and the specific influence that, in addition to the Sun, enormous planetary masses – such as those of the two planets – exert on the Earth can also be considered. 

It is also known that the Earth has a slight oscillatory movement relatively to the Sun, partially compensated by the attraction of the Moon, and that this oscillation causes changes in temperature, in a cycle estimated to last 41,000 years. 

Volcanic eruptions (see below) release CO2 into the atmosphere but that tends to be absorbed by the rocks and included in the Earth's crust; and, within a span of millions of years, is melted into the magma of the Earth's interior from which it returns to the atmosphere through volcanic eruptions. And, in this case, the negative human interference, with accelerated deforestation and CO2 emissions through, namely, industrial activities and transportation, in addition to the irrational use of the automobile, is evident.
 
Those pointing to the preponderance of non-human causes can establish three types of reasons for this effect: 

Ø  Undoubted scientific calculations, some of which are truly applicable, as mentioned before;
Ø  As instruments of countries in an accelerated process of capitalist development, anxious to recover from their historical backwardness in this process, especially China and India (see below the energy consumption), covering up their responsibilities behind nonhuman causes;
Ø  And a third case, made of the articulation between the energy’s great multinationals  that, allied with the political classes of their countries, try to hide their responsibilities behind the ineluctable changes emanating from the planet itself and its positioning within the solar system. This situation is, therefore, in all things similar to that stated in the previous point.

a)     Ineluctable absence of human interference cases

·        In 939/40 the Icelandic volcano Eldgja had the largest known eruption in the last two millennia and caused a particularly cold summer in the northern hemisphere; and this was used in Iceland for the burial of the "ineffectual" pagan gods, favouring the adoption of Christianity[3]. Its poisonous sulphur dioxide emissions were equivalent to 33/78 million tons and are estimated to have caused a cooling of 0.7º/1.5o on the northern hemisphere, making it the second coldest summer in 1500 years. 

Reports of the time, German, Irish, Arab, and Chinese, refer to very cold winters with frozen rivers and lakes during the epoch following the eruption of the Eldgja; the Nile presented an abnormal low flow in reaction to the aerosol effect; there have been breaks in agricultural production, caused by the cold, with run-away starving soldiers and peasants in Sicily, Italy, as well as in present-day Benelux, Germany and parts of France and Switzerland, and also in Baghdad and the Maghreb. In China, very bad agricultural years were followed by floods caused by the upstream thawing that followed the extraordinary snowfalls. The spring/summer drought in the following years was particularly severe in the Atlas, northern Alps and eastern China, where it is known that there were many thousands of deaths (this topic is technically developed here).
 
·        More serious than that of the Eldgja was the eruption of the Toba in Sumatra some 70,000 years ago – the most violent in a two million years interval – that caused successive and cold winters (drops of 10oC in the temperature) and the near extinction of the human species.

·        The so-called Little Ice Age lasted from the 13th to the 17th centuries, though there were still cold peaks in 1650, 1770 and 1850, apparently as a result of a breakdown of solar storms. At that time, the Thames froze in 1607 (the first time) and 1814 (the last); in 1780 the ice allowed passage on foot between the islands of Manhattan and Staten, in New York; and Iceland was surrounded by ice in 1695. In the fifteenth century, there were no longer Scandinavians in Greenland, one of the causes being the migration of the Inuit to the south, beset by cooling. Throughout this period human causes with any expressiveness, can hardly be found. In 1783/4 another Icelandic volcano – the Laki – caused a cooling of 1-2oC.

·        In 1883, Krakatoa’s brutal eruption caused the lowering of the temperature (approximately 1ºC) for years, following the dust and ash surrounding the Earth; and, in the immediate moment, generated 36,000 dead, with the noise of the explosion being heard 5,000 km away. After some time (very small in geological terms), its effects dissipated and today, after more than a century, only the memory remains.

·        In 2014 the Bandarbunga volcano in Iceland began a six-month period of activity and emitted more pollutant gases – sulphur dioxide – than the whole of Europe in three years. Already in 2010 the Eyjafjallajökull had caused the closure for a week of the airspace of twenty European countries, due to the emission of ashes; and therefore had more media attention, since it affected the march of business... in the midst of the financial market crisis. 

·      In the examples mentioned so far, there is always a demonstrable cause for the known effects; when there are no such conspicuous elements, things are much more complicated. Currently, calculations point to 140-year cycles of great volcanic activity in Iceland, with the emission of toxic gases that certainly impact the planet's temperature.
·      Whether or not the regularity of 140-year cycles in volcanic activity is true, volcanoes have been major active agents in the climate configuration, causing warming with the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases; or causing cooling by sending into the atmosphere ash and aerosol droplets that reflect the sun's rays, preventing them from reaching the surface of the planet.

These facts show a plan of causes-effects that until now have been leading to an approximate return to the situation previously known; in fact, there has never been a homogeneous variation of temperature for the planet. Any synthetic measure of climate change is based on dispersed data in geographic space and time, with the introduction of averages and deviations in statistical forecasting models. However, any synthesis of these localized, crossed and weighted data, each with high ranges of randomness, leads to another variable which, being global, will reproduce a larger interval, where the parameter chosen as an indicator of this synthesis will lie. This fallibility has led, for example, that the catastrophic predictions, years ago, of experts such as Lovelock have failure materialize.

b)     Historical and current impacts of capitalist development (see the second part of this text, to be published)

·      Capitalist development, in particular after the Industrial Revolution, took place in completely oblivious way to the impact of the production of goods and services to the market (such as wars) and, secondarily, to meeting peoples’ needs; a process which includes deforestation, a process that accounts for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, as much as the global transportation activity. And yet, the reduction of forest space continues, in the name of progress; in Amazonia, for the production of soy or establishment of pastures, a new impetus being expected with the Bolsonaro[4] government; and in Gabon or Borneo for the planting of palm trees that will supply the "markets" with palm oil.
 
·        In the last century the planet has warmed more vigorously due to industrialization, even in processes of "democratic" distribution through relocation; as a result of the growth of the circulation of vehicles of all the kinds of transport and to the human activity in general. The forecasting models – with some inconsistency margin, given the narrowness of the period of time concerning the collected data – say that we should already have entered a new cooling era; however, effects that are more related to warming continue to preponderate, resulting in a higher incidence of hurricanes and droughts, with effects on animal and plant life.

·        The shrinking of low-lying islands in the Maldives or the Andaman, the effects on corals of the acidification of marine waters, major environmental disasters such as the oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico, the creation of uninhabitable areas in Chernobyl or Fukushima... will have little relation with climatic oscillations inherent to the planet. Its responsible lies not with the Earth but with the homo economicus, focused on the maximization of yields and profits by time interval.

·        In Siberia, permafrost shows the effects of the slight warming that is being felt and reminds us that a few millennia ago – time, in geology and climatology has a different dimension from that which so afflicts Papalagui[5] – there were mammoths in Siberia, a river ran through Petra, Pasargadae or Persepolis were large cities inserted in green areas, etc. In addition, there are clear cases of human intervention such as the extinction of the lions in the Middle East, the aurochs grazing in the Iberian Peninsula, the European monkeys, now reduced to those resisting on the rocky cliffs of Gibraltar, in addition to the shameful extinction of the Caribbean natives and of the Brazilian coast, the Eastern USA... 

c)       Environmental management as done by multinationals and their employees

A third case is the covering of big multinationals responsibilities in climate drift – in collusion with the political classes linked to them – endorsing the causes of climate drift to the natural dynamics of the planet itself and its positioning in the solar system. And to this smokescreen, there is a strong contribution of the neoliberal theology, as we shall further specify: 

·          In the actions and positioning of the political classes there is the presence of the induction of belief in their virtues, in their commitment and sacrifice for the well-being of the people, necessarily coming from free private initiative, the source of all Goodness. In the political classes it is appreciated that people are passive collaborators, taxpayers, voters, compulsive consumers, debtors, spectators, and patriots but never define their own destinies or take any initiative that dispenses with the existence of the political class. Never ever! 

·          Within these attitudes of states and political classes is the logic that each person ought to individually seek solutions to problems that are collective, within the scope of the ideological and political directive decreed by Thatcher, in the early days of neoliberal subversion – "there is no such thing as society". This tirade leads to directly leaving to the sacrosanct private initiative those collective problems of which the state exempts itself; or placed before individuals and families that will directly support the costs of problem solving[6].

Thus, anyone wanting to refuse plastic food will have to pay more for healthy food because the said neoliberal State only wants the market to work, with a "healthy" competition between plastic food and healthy food; it being known that the first, less judicious in the choice of ingredients, with more massive production and advertising-induced, will be the first choice[7]

The use of solar energy at the domestic level is relegated to the competence and will of the family nuclei, whose investment will be greater, because equipment suppliers will be able to exploit the atomization of their customers to apply higher prices; in the Portuguese case, without the State waiving the VAT charge... at the maximum rate. The alternative is the use of majestic energy supply companies which, although incorporating a share of renewable origin, will be able to include in the invoice regular increases in prices, with the VAT bond coupled, among other charges; those do not exist when families directly capture the solar energy. Probably because the "raw material" extracted from the sun is increasingly expensive…

·          The global discourse is not restricted to wait with benevolence for the family initiative to emerge. But points to each individual as the culprit of all evils; be it through the increase of the public debt or deficit, lack of competitiveness, pollution, climate change, through their small current and everyday actions. Who does not remember, in Portugal, during the time of the troika, the speech of "we have spent beyond our means"? The plural “we” is downright offensive to the overwhelming majority of the population!

In order to brush off this guilt (well contained in Christian eschatology), families must re-equip their homes, replace the lamps and the car, buy food labelled bio... which, by the way, is a more expensive alternative... all of which is in blatant contrast with stagnant or shrinking incomes, in the name of crisis, recurrent in political speeches. This applies to those the market considers to be competitive and qualified (rich), as well as to those who are considered ear marked to heavy and disqualified tasks (poor). 

This higher cost is, simultaneously, a punishment to those careless, polluting individuals who do not invest enough in green technologies. This discourse on energy-saving and healthy practices feeds more sophisticated "markets" and more expensive goods and pushes into consumption and indebtedness; which is by no means a contradiction. These solutions make the industry and the financial system smile and have positive effects on GDP; how convenient… 

·          Far worse is something that the media and the political classes are silent about, so that multinationals and large energy companies can continue to pollute with impunity, avoiding technological changes and investments that would impact the profits and value of their shares. That is why it is good to know who has greater responsibility for climate change[8].

o  In 1988/2015 the CO2 emission was 833 Giga tons. Slightly more than all the emissions between the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and 1988.

o  In the same period that began in 1988, the 100 largest companies engaged in fossil fuel production promoted 71% of industrial emissions of greenhouse gases; and among them, 25 private companies, state companies or countries accounted for 51% of the emissions. The top ten and their contributions are:

1
China (Coal)
14.32%
2
Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco)
4.50%
3
Gazprom OAO
3.91%
4
National Iranian Oil Co
2.28%
5
ExxonMobil Corp
1.98%
6
Coal India
1.87%
7
Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
1.87%
8
Russia (Coal)
1.86%
9
Royal Dutch Shell PLC
1.67%
10
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC)
1.56%
o  These data are not disclosed by the corporate media. The large global and national institutions that manage energy production cannot be penalized – with regulations and taxes – because they would reach the stock market’s diffuse interests and the price levels of the already volatile oil market. They are not only too big to fail but also untouchable, because a financial crisis, of trust in the functioning of the capitalist system, is something that the financial system, the very rich, the speculators and the political classes do not want at all.
 
·          In parallel with the G20 summit in 2017, a report was issued[9] revealing the role of States in supporting big capital, contrary to the scholastic thinking that the State fulfils the satisfaction of the common good. Well, this support for fossil fuels is four times higher than that given to renewable energy, as you can see from this extract of published data (annual average in 2013/15, in millions of dollars).


Clean Energies (a)
Fossil energy (b)
(b) / (a) times
South Africa
229
352
1.5
Germany
2357
3461
1.5
Saudi Arabia.
13
1276
98.2
Australia
524
152
0.3
Brazil
1165
2985
2.6
Canada
171
2953
17.3
China
85
13532
159.2
South Korea
92
8907
96.8
USA
1271
6008
4.7
France
650
609
0.9
Great Britain
172
972
5.7
Italy
123
2149
17.5
Japan
2657
16466
6.2
Mexico
235
288
1.2
Russia
0
1092
-


Regarding multilateral financing through development banks, the situation is less severe.

ADB (Africa)
132
166
1,3
ADB  (Asia)
935
674
0,7
ERDB  (Europe)
919
1012
1,1
EIB/BEI   (Europe)
4011
3485
0,9
I-A DB (Inter-Americ.)
532
151
0,3
The World Bank Group
2428
3228
1,3

And the global situation shows what we have said above, that the financing of fossil energies is clearly preferred to clean energies, with the high patronage of the political classes, managers of the sanctified State. 

Grand Total
18739
71781
3,8
 


“The problem of today’s world is that intelligent people are full of doubts, and idiotic people are full of certainties” – Bertrand Russell

(to be continued)

Soon, Capitalist delusion and climate drift - 2

This and other texts in:



[1]  The marked and objective antagonism between the 99% of humans and the 1% of large capitalists and the high levels of the political class was popularized by the horizontal mass movement Occupy Wall Street, in 2011. 

[2]  We closely follow the article "Identification of the driving forces of climate change using the longest instrumental temperature record" published in the renowned journal Nature, assuming our limited knowledge in these scientific matters  https://www.nature.com/articles/srep46091


[3] The new gods, however, did not free the Icelanders from the catastrophic eruptions of the Hekla in 1300; nor from the black plague in 1350; or from the imprisonment of Reykjavik’s inhabitants, taken as slaves by Moorish pirates in the seventeenth century...


[4]  In the annual period beginning in August/2012 the Amazon lost 5843 km2 of forest and the murdering of Indians already in Bolsonaro consulate is not a good omen; neither for the environment nor for the natives.


[5] Reference to the personage of the book Papalagui by Erich Scheurmann “… a collection of speeches by a Samoan aborigine chief from Tiavéa on the island of Upolu, deals with the speeches of a Tuiavii and describes his vision of the European in a pre-World War I period ... Papalagui is a Samoan term that translated literally means the one who pierced the sky, an allusion to the white man, or, the European.” Adapted from the Wikipedia article (TN).



[6]  Even if the problems are real idiocy. Years ago, a well-known ecologist association advised families to put out the small lights distributed throughout the Christmas tree whenever they left home. The energy savings are... huge!

[7]  In Portugal, the recent tax on sugary drinks has been aimed at obtaining tax revenues tolerable by the plebs - and that the manufacturers will proceed to include in the prices without any difficulty. However, anyone standing in the supermarket queues still has at hand’s reach a bundle of treats, full of sugar and dyes, to entice them, children in particular. 

[8]  According to “The Carbon Majors Database” – Report 2017

[9]  TALK IS CHEAP: HOW G20 GOVERNMENTS ARE FINANCING  CLIMATE DISASTER  

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